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January 2, 2024

It’s official, Louisiana gets primacy

Sunya

Good Morning. This is the Sunya Scoop. The newsletter that takes energy transition news and turns it into an easy-to-read email for you.

Here’s what we have for you today:

  • Louisiana granted primacy over EPA on Class VI CO2 sequestration wells

  • Breakwall Capital launches energy credit fund

  • Shale keeping the world flush with oil during the Red Sea disruption

  • Iberdrola’s Avangrid terminates $8.3 billion deal to buy PNM Resources

  • Sinopec forecasts China’s coal consumption to peak in 2025

  • The almost headlines

  • Chart of the week

Louisiana granted primacy over EPA on Class VI CO2 sequestration wells

  • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has granted Louisiana state authority over permitting and regulating wells and projects involving carbon dioxide (CO2) underground sequestration.

  • Louisiana’s Office of Conservation now has primary regulatory authority for Class VI permits, which deal with CO2 injection and sequestration.

  • Governor John Bel Edwards and Commissioner of Conservation Monique M. Edwards praised the EPA for granting state primacy and acknowledged the cooperation during the process.

  • Louisiana aims to become a hub for Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) projects, contributing to carbon reduction efforts in traditional fuel and industrial feedstock industries.

  • CO2 sequestration involves injecting CO2 underground under confining layers to prevent migration.

  • The Office of Conservation worked on CO2 sequestration regulations for two years, aligning state law with federal requirements and exceeding EPA standards in some areas.

  • Louisiana will not grant waivers to injection depth requirements, prohibits CO2 sequestration in salt caverns, reviews and permits each well individually, and imposes additional monitoring and operating requirements.

  • Commissioner Edwards emphasized the importance of economic growth while ensuring safety and environmental protection.

  • More than 20 Class VI applications for Louisiana are in the permitting process with the EPA, indicating growing interest in carbon sequestration projects.

Breakwall Capital launches energy credit fund

  • Breakwall Capital LP announces a successful launch as an independent and employee-owned asset manager in the energy industry.

  • The firm is led by the co-founders of Riverstone Credit Partners: Christopher Abbate, Jamie Brodsky, and Daniel Flannery.

  • Breakwall specializes in credit investment and aims to support conventional, renewable, and “next generation” energy companies.

  • The team at Breakwall has a history of direct lending to middle market and developing energy companies, with over 60 transactions and approximately $5.3 billion in investment activity.

  • Breakwall is uniquely positioned to address the global energy challenge, balancing the need for energy production with decarbonization goals.

  • The firm plans to wind down existing Riverstone Credit vehicles, collaborate with Vitol through Valor Upstream Credit Partners, and launch its Breakwall-branded funds.

  • Breakwall’s mission is to address the “Energy Trilemma” by advancing decarbonization while enhancing energy affordability and reliability.

  • The investment strategy remains focused on short-duration, first-lien senior secured loans to middle-market and developing energy companies.

  • The firm operates from offices in New York, Newport, Rhode Island, and Houston, with a focus on key themes including energy infrastructure efficiency, sustainability, and decarbonization, waste-to-value, next-generation fuels, power grid stabilization, and responsibly sourced natural resources.

Shale keeping the world flush with oil during the Red Sea disruption

  • American oil and gas production and exports have surged, countering the impact of conflicts in the Middle East and disruptions in key shipping lanes.

  • Oil and gas prices have decreased by approximately 5% and 23%, respectively, despite ongoing conflicts in the Red Sea near Yemen.

  • U.S. oil exports in November exceeded Iraq’s production, reaching a record 4.5 million barrels per day.

Source: WSJ

  • U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are expected to set a record in December, reducing European reliance on the Suez Canal for shipments.

  • The Red Sea shipping crisis may raise consumer prices for goods crossing the region but has not significantly affected energy prices due to increased U.S. production.

  • Shale companies in the U.S. have accelerated drilling and production, contributing to a 900,000 barrels per day increase in oil production.

  • U.S. crude oil shipments to Europe have risen by 34% since 2022, driven by lower oil prices and changes in global supply.

  • The situation in the Red Sea may boost business for U.S. LNG shippers, with American LNG exports expected to reach record levels in December.

“I think there is growing confidence from investors that the industry isn’t going away anytime soon”

John Arnold, billionaire philanthropist and former natural-gas trader

Iberdrola’s Avangrid terminates $8.3 billion deal to buy PNM Resources

  • Iberdrola’s U.S. unit Avangrid Inc terminated an $8.3 billion acquisition of PNM Resources due to regulatory approval issues.

  • The deal was worth $4.3 billion excluding debt and aimed to create a renewable energy operator with a combined market value exceeding $20 billion.

  • All necessary approvals were obtained except that of the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission, which had rejected the acquisition in 2021.

  • Avangrid had no clear timeline for resolution but expressed commitment to renewable energy projects in New Mexico and other states.

  • Avangrid mentioned a $7 billion project portfolio in New York and Maine, the Vineyard Wind offshore project, and a $5 billion plan for asset repowering.

  • Iberdrola reaffirmed its commitment to investing in the United States but did not comment on acquisition plans.

  • Avangrid maintained its 2023 earnings forecasts, while PNM Resources planned to provide a financial update in February.

  • Iberdrola had earmarked 47 billion euros for investment between 2023 and 2025, with a focus on the United States.

  • The company also considered making an offer for Britain’s Electricity North West (ENWL) valued at a maximum of 3.5 billion pounds.

Sinopec forecasts China’s coal consumption to peak in 2025

  • Sinopec, China’s state energy group, predicts that China’s coal consumption will peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons.

  • Non-fossil energy sources, mainly solar and wind, are expected to surpass 3 billion metric tons of standard coal equivalence by 2045, becoming the primary energy source for over 50% of primary energy consumption.

  • Oil consumption is forecasted to peak in the middle of 2026-2030, reaching 800 million metric tons or approximately 16 million barrels per day. This is influenced by the rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle sector.

  • In 2021, China was estimated to consume 760 million tons or 15.2 million barrels per day of oil.

  • Sinopec anticipates China’s natural gas demand, a transitional fuel towards carbon neutrality, to plateau around 2040 at 610 billion cubic meters (bcm), accounting for 13% of primary energy use. This compares to the projection of 425 bcm and 9% of primary energy consumption in 2025.

  • China’s total carbon emissions from energy activities are expected to peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, reaching 10.1 billion metric tons, a slight increase from 10.02 billion tons in 2023.

  • Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe down 56% in 2023

  • US buys 3 million barrels of oil for strategic reserve

  • Spain confirms nuclear power phase-out, extends renewable projects deadlines

Nat gas and wind leading the charge on replacing coal

Source: EIA

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.

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